CNN Uluslararası Ticaret

“Şimdi Pazarla”

“Türk usulü başla”, “Alman disiplini” ile devam.

İngilizler gibi yaptırın ve Amerikalılar gibi tüketin.

 

*”23’e Tek Yön Bilet” başlıklı bu yazı, CNN International Business ” Market Now” TV’de Öne Çıkanlar’da Sayın Dr. Selahattin Yılmaz henüz yayınlanmadı.

Küresel olarak, covid ve hemen ardından tüm sektörleri etkisi altına alan covid ekonomisi; mikro ölçekli ekonominin kılcal damarları bile artık. Bilmem haberiniz var mı ama ülkemizin makro ekonomisinin detaylarına bakınca biz de mutasyona uğruyoruz.

Kimdik, ne yaptık, bugün neredeyiz, okuldan neler öğrendik, tüm geçmişimizden zihnimizde depolanan deneyimlerimizi bir düşünelim; bugün hangisini kullanıyoruz ve doğru yapıyoruz? Hiçbirimiz söyleyemeyiz, değil mi?

Mümkünse lütfen kadim bilgilerle ve yeni öğrendiklerimizle bakıp, karar ve uygulama yaptırmayın. Bu hepinize naçizane tavsiyem olabilir.

– Basit ama daha kesin olmak gerekirse; Unut gitsin

Sevgili okuyucular, bildiğiniz her şeyi askıya alın, geçmişten gelen hedeflerinize ara verin ve kişisel veya kurumsal deneyimlerinizi, akademik geçmişinizi, geçmiş-günümüz mali durumunuzu, yeni stratejik planlarınızı, hedeflerinizi, bütçelemenizi, yapmak istediklerinizi programlamayı vb. unutun. ..

Birincisi, sağlıklı borcumuz ve/veya psikolojimiz var mı? Şüphesiz %1-2.

Ancak var olan bilgileri kullanarak yeni bilgileri ortaya çıkarma çabasını anlatan bir tezim var.

Şimdiki zamanda yaşıyoruz, ancak bugün her şeyi yeniden yaşamalı ve öğrenmeye başlamalıyız. 2023 Ocak ayının ortasında bile bir sıfırlama noktasındayız. Yeni dünya düzenini her açıdan inceleyebiliriz. Matematiksel ve ekonomik verileri ele alalım; [Birisi] USD, Euro, Borsa, Faiz, Altın ve Ham Petrol fiyatları diye bir zincir oluşturdu. Hemen hemen her ürünün fiyatı USD veya Euro bazında ortalama %10 ile %15 arasında zam yapıyor. Son dönemde ise Libya, Mısır, Yunanistan, ABD, Çin, Rusya, Ukrayna ve S-400 ülkelerinde fiyat artışları görülüyor.

 

Yıllardır neyi yapamadık?

Piyasalar daha fazla arza sahip olduğunda ne olur?

Talep cephesinde artış olursa ne olur?

Her biri ciddi şekilde koşulsuz olarak kesintiye uğradı, bu yüzden ayrı bir dizide çaldılar. İlk anketin ardından TALEP yaratılarak ekonomiler test edildi. Euro bölgesi faiz oranlarını -%1 olarak gördü. Brent petrolün varili 0,00 doları gördü ve hatta eksiye bile düştü. Bunun sonucunda finansal piyasalar arz ve talepte kriz yaşayarak çöktü.

Geçenlerde tüm yerel pazarda bir iş gezisine çıktım. Ticaret konuşamaz olduk. Şu anki durumumuzu kimsenin analiz edemediğini gözlemledik, peki ya gelecek? Gittiğim hemen her yerde bu konular arka arkaya tartışıldı.

Sayın Yılmaz; Ne yapacağız? Sıradaki ne?

Herkesin gözü üzerimde ve ağzımdan çıkacak kelimeleri bekliyorlar. İlk birkaç ziyaretimde, o ruh hali ve şaşkın suratla, “Nasıl bileyim ağabey?” deme lüksüm yoktu. Paniğe kapılmamak için basit iyi niyetimizi ve beklentilerimizi konuştuk ve anlattık ama gün bugün; Yazımı çeşitli halkevleri, gazeteler, sosyal medya ve bazı uluslararası tv kanallarında yayınlayıp dağıtmaya karar verdim. Bugün de böyle farklı STK’larda bülten olarak yazdım.

2008 küresel ekonomik kriziyle başlayan hikayemize odaklanalım. ABD’nin en büyük yatırım bankalarından biri olan Lehman Brothers’ın iflası ile başlayan, yüzlerce bankanın iflas ettiği ve milyonlarca kişinin işsiz kaldığı sürecin perde arkası, başta ABD olmak üzere tüm dünya ekonomilerindeki sonuçları, Çin, Rusya ve Avrupa ülkeleri ile değişen ve değişen güç dengelerinin başlangıcı oldu.

After the 2008 crisis, usually every 8 to 10 years, the colors, logos, and inscriptions on big companies’ signs usually changed. What happened in 2018? Exactly ten years later, We just postponed the beginning of the crisis for that time, saying that it was tangent with the bankruptcy of banks that started in the USA in 2018. Yes, then that was what had to be done anyway. What are the reasons; We do not know. The giants of the world nor we knew what to do, but the new world order had begun. The crisis that was postponed in 2018 broke out, and we called it the so-called 2019 recession in our geography. For God’s sake, What a recession! How much strength do industrial organizations, multinational companies, and even small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have left to endure?

Dear reader, the first question is for you. Let’s ask ourselves, from the consumer who read this article to the owners of the largest group companies, multinational companies, How much endurance strength is left to survive?

The strength does not even exist; how can you endure? Profits have fallen to a single figure; what will we do next? Let’s not lose our resources, protect our assets, etc. Despite the unprofitability, due to the imbalance of supply and demand, we continued to hold on to our existing customers for the sake of sustainability and our assets, and we now had an obligation to transfer unreturned liquidity to the markets.

The process supposedly broke out with Corona in 2019, and the whole perception was based on the Corona economy. 2020 came 2021, 2022, and is over. From that day to current, we are in January 2023. 2024 is already in conversation. What will happen in 2023; unfortunately, we do not know that too.

Economists immediately provided explanations and additionally made statements announcing that; At the end of 2019, the global economy expects a recovery. The first half of 2021 finally came, and as of August 2022, 2023 became the topic in most conversations. Yes, we are now in January 2023. Thankfully, strong statements by the new generation economists, not the previous economists, have begun to be replaced by more realistic explanations. It seems that 2023 will be the year of recovery and compensation in the economy, provided that the epidemic will not suffer from new or different dimensions next year. Now, these more realistic explanations seem to give more hope and confidence. But of course, there is a price to pay in return for this. However, the price is not money! Rather, time.

How did the (Covid-19) outbreak lead to a crisis of unprecedented violence and magnitude in the modern world?

As part of the fight against the coronavirus crisis, large and small countries announced financial support packages, while central banks tried to keep the economy afloat by offering new liquidity opportunities with plenty of zeros, they already had no other choice, such as the only known formula that needed to be done. After the 2nd World War, it was not a picture like the World War 3 balance sheet. It doesn’t have to be a war. Countries with big economies; Share the hundreds of billions of dollars you have allocated to your defense budgets for humanity this time. Look, we are already in the Third World War. However, we must remember that

  • there has never been a single winner in any war in our World History.

Governments have tried to appease countries and their economies with 8 trillion USD with plenty of zeros while protecting the people’s health; on the other hand, they tried as hard as possible to make the economy sustainable. As no one knew the truth, which is the truth, all the budgets from the vaults began to flow for humanity by trial and error.

The recovery doesn’t happen to the extent we want it to, and how company owners, senior managers, investors, and partners think until we keep up with the Old usual new economic order.

  • With risk perception and anxiety, what will companies do with the zigzags in their strategic business plans if there is still a company? Uncertainties exist in an environment where there is no sustainability.

 

  • Well, some companies have saved; It is not over … If we consider the above-mentioned factors from 2019 to 2022 and even 2023, when we are in transformation, the change in the purchasing behavior of consumers will begin a new path that no one knows about.

 

  • These will only become a story that will begin to be told in schools such as after specific observations and results are reached 4 to 5 years after the virus economy ends.

So what happens to our elders of the state in this process?

Overcoming the crisis with the minor capital budget will only be possible in the economies of developed and large countries. What about social trauma?

We can count many items such as keeping the health system alive – keeping companies alive – preventing unemployment – analyzing the effects – reporting – budgeting for its construction – implementing strategic policies. But we have to bring them to life! Whichever of the small or large economies gets through this process fast; It will find its place at the top of the global economy in the new world order.

If it is inevitable that the coronavirus epidemic will bring down economic growth and increase unemployment due to the slowdown given by the global economy to our country, what do we do?

As you know, the fact that many companies operating in the service sector remain closed for a long time will disrupt growth and will.

What about the production areas of Turkey’s industrial capacity? If one proceeds downward, costs will increase, and our export capacity will decrease. If the production capacity decreases and the export decreases, it will use the exchange rate advantage with our “old” method, which again means the “old” high inflation we know.

Well, we know that the value-added raw materials of the products we export are imported from Europe. Especially in shrinking economies like Europe, production reaches a standstill or a yield of 100 units reaches 150. What should be done with the costs?

Regardless, let’s proceed with the festive table; Capacity utilization is on the right track. Export continues, but most of our exports are to Europe. Germany – France – England – where we will export as there is an enormous contraction of over 15% in the whole EU.

We should not forget that the oil prices, which are caused by falling oil prices first and then peaking, are worth the quotations; with three times the peak prices, economic problems, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East markets have also contracted. The sharp decline in oil prices is an average of 37.5 billion dollars annually. Energy is an important balance factor in the current account of our country, which has a current account deficit. We talked about exports. Well, another sector that can negatively affect the current account balance is tourism. The 2022 crisis will determine the tourism industry. This situation had a severe drawback to tourism in Turkey. The decreasing indicators in economic parameters will cause a severe decline in companies’ imports and our monetary budget.

Hospitality and Food Sector with 54%, especially construction at 48%, Air transport at 47.3%, Tourism at 45% to the lowest at 12.6%. Education services are the sectors that have contracted.

This is the bill of the economy of western countries from 2019 to 2022

USA 31.7% – ENGLAND 20.4% – GERMANY 10.1% – EU average of 15% -OECD countries average 9.8%

G7 nations average 11.9%

Place our Turkey in the new system; Let’s SWOT analyze it.

First, our country can make decisions and take action much faster than other multinational companies. They say, “Start Like a Turks”, continue with German discipline, finish like the British, internalize and consume like Americans.

In summary, we are Turkish and very successful on winding roads.

Where did these multinational companies in Europe move their production as outsourcing? CHINA. Again, these companies will now plan to distribute their risks to other geographies. There is almost no room in Turkiye’s organized industrial zones.

Targeted markets are feeding old Europe first and the AFRICA market in parallel. Then why is; does it not have purchasing power, but despite the bills, underground and above-ground wealth is more valuable than money? I will send the relevant business model and report to my Minister of Foreign Affairs and Industry in the following days.

In many sectors, our country is called the “Quality China” of Europe.

The manufacturing industry in our breaking our products, our diversity, and our success in reverse engineering, although we still give the brain drain because of their geographical and logistical advantages; on the other hand, we have a qualified workforce in Turkey.

While they want to attract foreign direct investors to our country in the coming years, they will support this and have the opportunity to strengthen the production capacity in China and our country. The eggs are not in the same container. There seems to be a light in this way out.

What’s the problem this time? As of April, the diagnosis of Covid has the highest RECORD according to the country population, unfortunately, in our country. We started like a Turk. We have the record. Let’s fix this by fulfilling the requirements with German discipline. With a reduction in the figures, first, the British will make their first investment for years to come, then next, we will be watching Turkey in our new world order. Let’s do this passionately for our children, family, nation, and state before the country’s economy improves.

At the helm of the sectors that will peak with 2023, Apart from medical devices, the chemical industry, and hygiene products, the food and agriculture sector, like never before, will progress to the forefront, and our return journey in the ’80s will begin.

Let’s wrap it up this time.

Selahattin Yilmaz

Başkonsolos – Liberya Cumhuriyeti Türkiye Cumhuriyeti’nde.

6S ( Six-S ) Uluslararası – Kurucu

Sampiyon Filtre Corp. – Hissedar

Liberya İçin İt – Kurucu

SEL Grup – Kurucu

 

 

*”23’e Tek Yön Bilet” başlıklı bu yazı, CNN International Business ” Market Now” TV’de Öne Çıkanlar’da Sayın Dr. Selahattin Yılmaz henüz yayınlanmadı.

Selahattin Yılmaz

Selahattin Yılmaz

Amacım siz değerli ziyaretçilerime bilgi birikimlerimi aktarmak ve yaptığım çalışmalar hakkında taze bilgiler vermek ve sonucunda düşüncelerinize ilham olabilmektir.

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